A forecast model depicts one way storms may develop Friday night.
CNN —
A multi-day severe thunderstorm event is underway as the central US endures damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes, and the danger posed by these fierce storms will only increase into the weekend.
Damaging storms Thursday in the Plains kicked off the event and produced at least two confirmed tornadoes, dozens of hail reports – some of which were bigger than baseballs – and wind gusts up to 70 mph.
It’s all part of classic springtime setup for severe weather. Moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is flowing into the central US as heat builds in the region, priming the atmosphere for robust storms.
Some locations are facing down a severe thunderstorm threat spanning two or three consecutive days.
Dallas; Kansas City, Missouri; Des Moines, Iowa; and Omaha, Nebraska, are just a few cities that could be hit by multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms through Sunday.
Here’s where to expect these hazardous storms each day:
Friday: Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest
Severe thunderstorms from Thursday night were still roaring across parts of Texas and Oklahoma Friday morning. Some of these storms were tornado-warned around sunrise. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a tornado or two remain possible as storms track east into parts of Missouri and Arkansas through Friday morning.
The next round of severe thunderstorms will fire up in the mid-to-late afternoon in eastern Nebraska and Kansas and track east into Iowa and Missouri through the evening and into the overnight. A Level 3 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for these states Friday, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
Damaging wind gusts, hail up to the size of baseballs and strong tornadoes – at least EF2-strength – are possible.
“Several factors appear to be supportive of a significant tornado event today,” the prediction center warned Friday morning. Tornadoes are most likely to develop from mid-afternoon through the evening.
Additional severe thunderstorms could rumble to life after the morning storms in parts of Oklahoma and Texas. These storms may kick off in the late afternoon or evening and push into Arkansas Friday night.
Damaging winds and large hail are possible. Tornadoes are possible as well but with lower risk for strong tornadoes.
Heavy rainfall with rates up to 2 inches per hour could cause flooding in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri.
Parts of Missouri were deluged with rain on Thursday, prompting flash flood warnings in the Springfield area, where more than half a month’s worth of rain fell. Additional heavy rainfall Friday could allow floodwaters to rise faster and pose an even greater hazard.
Saturday: Potential to be the most dangerous day
Saturday could be the most dangerous day of the four if certain atmospheric conditions align. The potential strength of storms hinges on how Friday night’s storms evolve and linger into Saturday morning.
“A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday,” the prediction center cautioned Friday.
If storms hang around in the morning hours, the atmosphere will not be able to fully recharge to unload widespread, dangerous storms. Damaging storms are still likely in this scenario, they could just fail to reach their peak potential strength.
But if storms quickly clear out Saturday morning, there won’t be much of a limit on how strong storms could become.
The most significant storms are possible starting in the afternoon in parts of the southern and central Plains, where a Level 3 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place. Widespread damaging wind gusts, hail up to the size of baseballs and strong tornadoes are the storms’ main hazards.
The tornado threat may ramp up considerably through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Damaging storms are possible outside of the greatest risk area in a huge area of the country from the Great Lakes to southern Texas.
A “significant rainfall event” could unfold Saturday, the Weather Prediction Center warned. Some locations could record close to 5 inches of rain in a short period and dangerous flash flooding could result. A handful of locations caught under multiple rounds of gushing rainfall could have totals approach the 8-inch mark.
A Level 3 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall is in place for a large portion of Oklahoma – including Oklahoma City and Tulsa – and smaller parts of Kansas and Texas. Intense rainfall could force streams to overflow their banks and flood roadways.
Sunday: Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest
Damaging storms are possible from Texas to Wisconsin Sunday. But the exact timing, extent and strength of these storms will depend heavily on how Saturday night’s storms behave.
If the atmosphere is able to recharge following morning storminess, new severe thunderstorms will start to bubble up in the afternoon.
The storms could unload damaging wind gusts and large hail, but an isolated tornado or two is also possible.
Heavy, flooding rainfall is possible, especially in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley.
By Monday, severe weather is forecast to become much more isolated. Any developing storms may be confined to the Gulf Coast.
CNN Meteorologist Robert Shackelford contributed to this report.
